10 wins in a 14-game season, and this was easily the least impressive of Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. Dan Marino's lone Super Bowl and this team was his best shot. It seems odd to think of Terry Bradshaw as a problem, but in 1974 he took over for Joe Gilliam. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. 2023 NFL Draft odds: Will Georgia's Stetson Bennett get selected? Therefore, designating Garoppolo as the starter seemed the safer choice. However, New York went just 10-6 in the regular season. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. In the end, FPI's projections for the Colts are not all that bad; they have a 44% chance to win the AFC South (second to the Titans) and a 59% shot to make the postseason. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. A 124 record and a solid defense? Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. Four of those teams made the playoffs last year and Miami won 10 games. The defense wasn't that much better either, finishing 27th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and recorded the fewest turnovers in the league. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. Kansas City's middling defense (No. To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. Instead, Baltimore is here due to how poorly it played in its Super Bowl win. When you have to play the two toughest divisions in the NFL NFC West, AFC North the uphill climb is real. Aaron Rodgers hasnt been back since 2011., The Chiefs have gone to two straight. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. 13. Peyton Manning dragged him and the rest of the team there. He had one season without Peyton and went 2-14 leading to his firing and the start of the Luck era. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. Let's start in the 1980s, with a team led by Hall of Famers like Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Steve Young For a franchise that was so consistently dominant in the 1980s, the 1988 version of the San Francisco 49ers sure seems mediocre. That alone earned the game a spot this high on the list. I did not mean to rhyme there. This team just wasn't ready to win it all yet, but still a very good all-around team with a sneaky productive defense. Detroit has a young and talented offensive line (average age 24 years old) to protect new quarterback Jared Goffwho is looking to resurrect his career after getting traded by the Los Angeles Rams. A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. A year before perfection. Trent Dilfer. Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating -- basically true talent level -- but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively. An 11-5 record was good enough for first place in the AFC East, yet New England was 5-5 through 10 games. The Dolphins capped off the only perfect season ever, despite Garo Yepremian give us an all-time blooper. So their overall grade suffered. The Panthers and Patriots gave us the most exciting fourth quarter in Super Bowl history, combining for five scores, including an 85-yard pass by Jake Delhomme, which remains a Super Bowl record, and Adam Vinatieris game-winning kick as time expired. Just as importantly, no team lost more games to injury last year than the 49ers, And thats at every position. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. Matt Stafford, on the other hand, is learning a new offense, albeit with a smart coach and talented skill players. 31. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre. Dilfer bounced around many teams in his career, but he was lucky enough to helm the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl victory on the strength of their history-making defense. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the Superbowl, but they didnt score many touch 5 offense. Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. Quick, use one word to describe Super Bowl XL in Detroit. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. Dallas got out to an early 10-point lead and never looked back. Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. 1) How is coach Zac Taylor going to go from 6-25-1 to the Super Bowl? They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). Defense wins championshipsor at least they should. Oh, and they had Terrell Owens, who was a superstar. Historically, those are difficult to duplicate.. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. This 1969 Minnesota Vikings team was elite and ranked first for both points scored and points against. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. 10. Sixth-round draft pickTom Brady took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe at quarterback and led the Patriots all the way to the Super Bowl title. The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. Tennessee already has the game's best running back in Derrick Henry and one of the league's best big-play receivers in A.J. And they do return all 11 starters on offense and defense., If they get by the Rams in Week 3, theyll be favored in every game the rest of the way, and youll regret not taking a flier that you can potentially hedge later., 2. Pittsburgh was just 7-5 through 12 games. The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. And we'll start with the Chiefs: More: Sure, but it did not make for an entertaining game up until the end. 2007 Giants, 2007 Patriots, 2006 Colts, or the 2009 Saints, with a 25th overall defense, could say they were all the worst defensive teams to win a Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock Im buying low.. Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. 29 and 30. Twenty-two women have said in lawsuits that Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week. The market is super high on Buffalo theyre only underdogs in two games, vs Tampa and KC but there likely will be some form of regression. If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. The most interesting thing about this Super Bowl remains Hank Strams micd up footage. WebWell looking at it from a "in comparison to the rest of the league that year" perspective, as far as defenses that allowed the most points, these rank as the 3 worst defenses to win a Super Bowl: 2011 Giants were the 25th ranked defense 2006 Colts were the 23rd ranked defense 2009 Saints were the 20th ranked defense They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. Eli Manning did it to the Patriots again. They were the 3rd best scoring offense in the league, but 28th on defense. Super Bowl V between the Baltimore Colts and Dallas Cowboys is often considered the worst Super Bowl ever played simply because of the terrible play from both teams. W. 23-20. Despite the memorable moments, this game was a bit of a letdown with two Hall of Fame quarterbacks not putting on the offensive show we expected. 16. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. But hey, they did something right, they were in the Super Bowl. Why? The Cardinals defense significantly improved with the addition of J.J. Watt and the return of Chandler Jones on the pass rush. Will this be the first time for everything?. Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. This Super Bowl gave us a bunch of memorable performances. 1 pick than the 2021 Houston Texans, at 24%. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. 12. Ill assume you didnt watch the It helps that the Browns arguably have a top three offensive line in football (if not the best). Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules. That's ridiculous. Reeling off 11 straight road wins was impressive, and so was beating the top two seeded teams in the NFC en route to the title game (Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys). 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Finishing 133 and a high-energy offense by Sean McVay, the Rams were a force to be reckoned with. The Broncos do have to see Mahomes and the Chiefs twice, but they play only four top-10 FPI teams and get the extra home game for being in the AFC. The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more, FOX SPORTS, SPEED, SPEED.COM & 2023 Fox Media LLC and Fox Sports Interactive Media, LLC. This game will be decided at quarterback, and the daring superstar who joins Brady as the only quarterback to appear in three Super Bowls in his first six seasons is the pick here. The AFC West belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, but second place is there for the taking. An 115 team that didn't exceed in anything, but had John Elway. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. 3. That decision is based on two factors: Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. The wild card is first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who probably is an upgrade over Anthony Lynn but hes only been in the NFL since 2017, so how could anyone say for sure? Oh, if they only handed the ball off the Marshawn Lynch. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. One yard away from not even being on this list, the 133 Titans were solid. To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. and quarterback rating (112.4). Cleveland already has one of the game's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and cornerbacks in Denzel Ward. This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." Sign up for the For The Win newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning. Seriously, the Vikings are never allowed to make another Super Bowl. The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first conference championship game appearance since 1993 while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. 23. They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). This game will be remembered for two plays: The surprise onside kick to start the second half and Tracy Porters game-sealing pick-6 of Manning. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. Here is a quarterback guru who never could quite develop a quarterback as a head coach. This may not be the worst championship team of all time, but these Steelers werebarely ataste ofthe greatness that wasto come in the following years. The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. Jacksonville was the worst team in the league last year, but the Jaguars were competitive in half of their games (seven of their losses were by one score). Cam Newton had an MVP season to remember and ran an offense that produced 31.3 points per game. It was all downhill for Chicago after Devin Hester returned the opening kick for a touchdown.