Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. 3. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. . All Rights Reserved. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Found an error on our site? A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. What science tells us about the afterlife. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Their concerns are real. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Voter Demographics (9). The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Arapahoe County. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Trump won the other 18 counties. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. hide caption. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. our Gitlab account where you can Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. 03:30. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Lets find a coin, and flip it. 7. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. What results did you discover? 10. Dont simply gloss over this. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Outstanding. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Still, the state's worth watching. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. University of New Hampshire . At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Hillary Clinton (578) The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Jeff. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. It is easy to gloss over this. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Want to dive deeper? "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Not a bad streak. So, where are the bellwether counties? Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Read about our approach to external linking. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. 3. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Watch Hampton City. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Seriously. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Their hopes are real. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. The matters that way on their minds are real. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic.