They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. ago. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Ronald Harold Johnson (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. Senator, led by Lt. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of his performance, including 56 . 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). After about a three-year hiatus, FiveThirtyEights Popularity Above Replacement Senator and Popularity Above Replacement Governor ratings are back! GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Scribd is the world's largest social reading and publishing site. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. With a PARG of +13, Democratic Gov. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. . Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. Those include Republican Sens. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. The American Independent is the No. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. All rights reserved. 2 in PARS with a score of +33. Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. 2022 Senate Elections (51) I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. Johnson, 67, is also the subject of an ethics complaint over a $280,000 gift to his chief of staff, which he argued was intended for the employees cancer treatments, NBC News reported. Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. With the prospect that abortion could soon be illegal in many states, some people may face difficult decisions about what to do if they have an unwanted pregnancy. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. But the electorate has hardened around him. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican construction executive Tim . Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. I'm just trying to convey the truth. Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. The polling suggests that in the past two years, Johnson has positioned himself better for the first task than the second. Gas prices have plummeted. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Free shipping for many products! Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. Need to report an error? With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. 772 days 4 . So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. Youre ridiculous. Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. The United States of America has 100 senators, and all are constantly under public scrutiny. Barnes, 35, would become the youngest member of the Senate, as well as Wisconsin's first Black senator, if he wins in November. Right now, the Democrats are trying to steal this election blah, blah, blah!. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Cant fix stupid or true believers. The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. 2022 Governors Elections (39) Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Share: Listen Download. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. House Republicans introduce bill to declare AR-15-style assault rifle US 'national Report finds right-wing radicals responsible for all extremist-related murders in 2022. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. Let's get into the rationale for these changes. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). The decline in sentiment largely started after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but gained momentum after Biden was elected, when Johnson made headlines for his statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and skepticism of vaccines. The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. Independent Sens. Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Although partisanship has been getting more important in gubernatorial races, it is not as dominant of a force in them as it is in federal elections.3. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. In . Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Timmy! For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Meanwhile, Republican U.S. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] Jimmy Carter 1977-81. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Frankly, who cares what you think about Biden, the real question about your thinking is: Do you really believe voters are equally sickened by Biden as they truly are with Trump? Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. 1 digital platform for progressive news, reaching millions of people each month. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos, and the Trump-inspired GOP. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. The reelection races of Sens. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. You must be an Urban Milwaukee member to leave a comment. Tony Earlagainst his four potential Republican challengers, with Evers leading all four and Kleefisch running closest to the governor.