If a conflict were to erupt in east Asia, then the Chinese military is closer to on par with the United States. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". And a navy. Would Japan? Such possibilities seem remote at present. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. Credit:AP. In providing for our own defence we ought to be able to make sufficient and good quality plans provided we have the will to do so. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. "In the history of the 20th century, it took two world wars to deal with the difficult policy question of dealing with rising powers prepared to challenge the statusquo. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. Humans have become a predatory species. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. No doubt Australian passions would run high. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. "The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land, he says. "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. It depends how it starts China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. I don't think so! In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. Now it is China. All agree, for example, that the United States with or without Australias assistance cannot win a war against China. And in a defensive war, China has the enormous advantage of mass, as Stalin demonstrated after the end of 1942.". Stavros Atlamazoglou. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the . And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. Some wouldn't survive. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. And, if a shooting war does break out, the US and its allies are not guaranteed a win. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. The war has exposed divisions within the G20 that go beyond Russia and China. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. All times AEDT (GMT +11). Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue may have catastrophic consequences. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. Which is why Beijing would be so determined to secure them. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. But there's also bad news ahead. Especially without comprehensive and numerous missile defence systems. To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . Principles matter, he writes. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. But it is already outnumbered. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. Part 2. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. Australia is especially exposed. Should US tensions with China flare into a war there is no question that these days Washington would put enormous pressure on Albanese, or any future leader, to join them in that conflict. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. "Australia is never reluctant to support and participate in American adventurism. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. "It depends. So it would be an even match. "China's IADS makes a blockade the most likely scenario. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. Australias Air Warfare Destroyers pack just 42. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. We should not assume it will attempt this.". I think its clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. Failing to come to Taiwans aid would seriously weaken and perhaps destroy Americas position in Asia, and our alliance with America would be seriously weakened if not destroyed if we failed to support the US. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. But unlike Ukraine, where Europe is largely united in condemning Russia, Asia will not be united in condemning China.". "Notwithstanding their entirely different circumstances, for Australia to support Taiwan against China would be similar to Australia's supporting Catalonia against the Castilians. Credit:Getty. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. "Depending on the scenario, here's what is reasonably predictable: "Firepower strike can vary from a limited strike against symbolic targets to extensive strikes against energy and transport infrastructure (power stations and petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) storage sites, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels) as well as military targets (air defence systems, coastal defence cruise missile launchers, fighter aircraft, artillery). Mastro notes that in war scenarios the US wants to maintain the status quo in the region while China wants to change it. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. And doesnt have the necessary reach. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. "Chinas air defences are likely to prove formidable, but so are US and allied air capabilities. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. That is massive! Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war.